Brazil's Economy: Factory Jobs Vanish as Delivery Apps Rise
In Osasco, closed plants have been replaced by malls and gig work, shifting voter loyalty from President Lula to Flávio Bolsonaro.
By Adewale Fletcher ·
Brazil holds its presidential runoff vote on Sunday, and the outcome hinges on a structural shift in how its citizens earn a living. In Osasco, a municipality in the state of São Paulo, the industrial base that once defined the city has largely disappeared. The area, now referred to as São Paulo's Silicon Valley, has traded manufacturing for retail and technology services.
The economic shift has altered political allegiances. Osasco voted for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, but residents chose right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round held this month. Bolsonaro leads nationally in the runoff. Historically, every candidate who won the first round since 1989 has gone on to become president.
Gilberto Almazan, leader of a local metalworkers' union, attributes the change to the disappearance of metal, chemical, and textile factories. He notes that five shopping malls have been built in their place. Almazan describes the traditional labor movement as outdated. He observes that many workers now operate as drivers, couriers, or small traders. He calls this transition the Uber-isation of the workforce, noting that these workers prioritize flexibility over the collective welfare provisions Lula traditionally offered.
Richard Lapper, a biographer of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, argues that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, intensifying the economic pain. He describes Lula as a victim of his own success. While unemployment has reached a record low and Brazil was removed from the UN's Hunger Map, Lapper identifies a crisis of expectations. Residents report higher prices, household debt, and high interest rates that offset improvements in living standards.
Voters in the city express mixed views on the current administration. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant, blames government mismanagement for the heavy tax burden. Tairine, a hot dog seller, plans to vote for Bolsonaro after previously abstaining. She states that nothing has changed since Lula returned to office. Lawyer Gisele Bonfim, who supported Lula in 2022, says she now sees Bolsonaro as a source of hope for change.
Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while retaining some of Lula's welfare programs. He has also denied recent corruption accusations. The first round saw 33 million people abstain from voting, the highest number since 1998. Lula's campaign is responding with large street rallies, claiming one event in São Paulo attracted approximately one million attendees. The 80-year-old president has also used social media to counter concerns about his age, referring to himself as the king of selfies.
In lower-income areas, Lula's welfare record remains influential. In Maré, a large favela in Rio de Janeiro, Lula won despite higher-than-average abstention. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under £300 a month, supports the minimum wage increase and free essential medicines. She fears Bolsonaro's plan to classify the Comando Vermelho gang as a terrorist organization, citing police raids in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people. Resident Andreza Dionísio blames last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness for low turnout.
Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling social gaps with childcare and employment advice. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and opposition to abortion. The first round results appeared to reflect a rejection of the incumbent rather than a strong endorsement of the challenger.
