Musk Counters NASA Panel With Lower Moon Fuel Estimate
SpaceX chief argues eight tanker flights will suffice for Artemis IV, rejecting a 22-flight projection.
By Adewale Fletcher ·
Elon Musk disputed a recent assessment from a NASA safety advisory group regarding the number of rocket launches required to fuel a crewed Moon landing. The dispute centers on the logistics for Artemis IV, the mission scheduled to put astronauts on the lunar surface in 2028. Musk stated that the actual number of flights needed will be significantly lower than the figures cited by the panel.
The conflict surfaced after the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting on Thursday. Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut serving on the panel, flagged the refueling of the lunar lander as a primary risk. He noted that the latest estimate stands at approximately 22 flights. Precourt emphasized the need to monitor the numerous required fuelings closely.
Musk responded to the remarks after journalist Eric Berger shared them on X. "That's way too high," Musk wrote. "Actual number will be more like 6 to 8." This range aligns with Musk's previous claims. In 2021, he dismissed a government document suggesting 16 launches as "extremely unlikely" and asserted that eight tankers would be the maximum required.
The difference in estimates stems from the physical constraints of the Starship vehicle. The rocket consumes nearly all its propellant to reach Earth orbit, necessitating an orbital refueling strategy. SpaceX plans to launch a Starship configured as a storage depot first. Tanker Starships will then fly individually, dock with the depot, and transfer their remaining propellant. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander will launch, dock, and depart for the Moon.
The total number of launches carries substantial weight in mission planning. Each flight represents a complete rocket launch, adding time and cost while increasing the potential for pre-flight issues. Berger estimated that even with a launch cadence of two per week by the end of 2027, filling the depot to the panel's 22-flight standard would take about three months.
The final count depends on propellant delivery efficiency and losses. Starship fuel and oxygen are kept at extremely low temperatures, causing some to boil off in orbit. Further losses occur during each transfer. NASA's estimate appears to rely on the vehicle's current lifting capacity, while Musk's range assumes a more capable version. SpaceX intends to use its upgraded V3 Starship for refueling operations, hardware that has yet to be fully flown.
Precourt described Artemis IV as carrying a large number of firsts. He commended NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman for working to remove obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin. Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander does not depend on orbital refueling for its initial mission, offering a different logistical approach.
