Patriots Face 7-Point Spread in Week 8 vs. 1-5 Dolphins
New England enters the game missing three starting wide receivers and both starting guards, but the Dolphins offer a vulnerable pass defense that could mask the offensive gaps.
By Jonathan Hoffmann ·
The New England Patriots are projected to win by seven points against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, a margin that reflects the Dolphins' 1-5 record despite New England's significant roster gaps. The game takes place in Miami, where the Patriots must navigate a lineup depleted by injuries at wide receiver and offensive guard.
The Patriots enter the matchup with only three healthy wide receivers on their 53-man roster. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are on injured reserve, while A.J. Brown is out with knee and ankle injuries. Efton Chism, DeMario Douglas, and Kyle Williams remain the primary options for quarterback Drake Maye, with Chism having earned trust in recent weeks. The team is likely to promote one of four practice squad players, including Ryan Miller, who began the season with Miami and remains their fifth-leading receiver.
Tight ends will play an expanded role to compensate for the lack of receiver depth. Hunter Henry and rookie Eli Raridon are expected to line up in multiple positions, including inline, outside, and in the slot. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and tight ends coach Thomas Brown noted that the team will utilize plays typically reserved for wide receiver sets, leveraging the versatility of their two-tight end groups.
The offensive line will see changes at both guard positions, as Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mike Onwenu are on injured reserve. Matt Pryor is expected to start at right guard after earning praise from head coach Mike Vrabel following last week's loss to the Bears. Walter Rouse and Ben Brown are the options for left guard, with Brown returning to practice this week after missing the previous game with a knee injury. Brown possesses more experience in the role if he is fully healthy.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to take the majority of carries with TreVeyon Henderson ruled out due to illness. Corey Kiner, who has outperformed Henderson in the last two weeks, will also see the field. Lan Larison was signed off the practice squad on Saturday and may contribute in the passing game to offset the receiver shortage. The Patriots currently hold a turnover ratio of minus-7, ranking 31st in the league, with eight interceptions and six lost fumbles.
The Dolphins present a distinct challenge on the ground, ranking seventh in the NFL with 131.5 rushing yards per game. Ollie Gordon serves as the primary running back, supported by quarterback Malik Willis. The Patriots' defense ranks 22nd in EPA per rush, a statistic that may be tested by Gordon's size and speed. On the defensive side, Carlton Davis III is expected to return from a neck injury, restoring the starting secondary for the first time since Week 1.
Mike Vrabel expressed concern about the team's ball security, calling it an embarrassment two weeks ago. The Dolphins have forced only five turnovers this season, providing a clear opportunity for New England to improve its turnover ratio. The Dolphins' pass defense remains a weak point, with cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. allowing a 158.3 passer rating this season. The Patriots' offensive line should face a manageable pass rush, allowing Maye to operate with time.
The betting market sets the over/under at 43.5 points, with New England favored by seven. The Dolphins are led by veteran defenders including Chop Robinson, Zach Sieler, and Jordyn Brooks, who has led the league in tackles the last two years. Jacob Rodriguez provides instinctive playmaking at safety. The Dolphins are expected to shift motion on every offensive play, a scheme that Vrabel says requires continued improvement from the Patriots on the road.
