Satellite Data Confirms 9,000 Hectares of New Poppies in Balochistan
Afghan farmers are moving production into Pakistan and Iran as the Taliban ban takes hold, according to new analysis from the firm Alcis.
By Elijah Fitzgerald ·
More than 9,000 hectares of opium poppy cultivation have been identified in Pakistan's Balochistan province, according to satellite imagery analyzed by the British firm Alcis. David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on illicit drugs, released an August report detailing the findings. He stated that the remote borderlands shared by Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran have become a global center for opium production.
The expansion follows a 2022 ban on narcotics by the Taliban in Afghanistan. Although the militant group has not eliminated all cultivation, output has dropped sharply. Mansfield noted that instability in the tri-border area has pushed farmers to seek new land. He described the shift as moving from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in the neighboring countries.
In Balochistan, Pakistan's largest and poorest province, most of the new crops are concentrated in the Loralai and Killa Abdullah districts. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, alleged that senior military officials and pro-government power brokers support the growth. He said they take commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected the claim, citing an eradication campaign from last year, but Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of that removal.
Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand have crossed the border to lease land in Pakistan. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of Killa Abdullah, said these growers bring money and expertise. They invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield called this a stark indication that higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.
A similar pattern has emerged in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. Afghan farmers work there as tenants and sharecroppers, using family ties to secure land. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive fields, some using drip irrigation. This costly investment suggests growers planted in late 2025 with low expectations of eradication. Iranian authorities have focused on their war against the United States and Israel since late February, leaving the 2026 crop largely untouched.
Inside Afghanistan, production is rebounding in Badakhshan and the southwest. Mansfield said southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. Farmers in these areas have protested drought and debt, defying the ban even under forceful enforcement. A recent Taliban directive bars home searches for poppy without a court order. Mansfield warned that farmers may read this as a signal of tolerance, potentially leading to a dramatic rise in opium production in 2027.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that opium production in Pakistan remains marginal. However, the agency acknowledged that scarce data and sharp rises in eradication figures point toward spillover effects. The Interior Ministry and provincial government in Pakistan did not respond to requests for comment on the new satellite data.
