Texas Hispanic voters are drifting back to Democrats before midterms

Voters in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas are changing their minds ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. This region gave Donald Trump a record 55% of the Hispanic vote in 2024, but recent surveys indicate a majority of those voters now disapprove of the president. They favor Democratic candidates over Republicans by a wide margin. This shift could alter the balance of power in the US Senate.

The mood has changed in a place that once saw more than 2.5 million border apprehensions in a single year under the previous administration. Trump pledged to end illegal crossings during his 2024 campaign, and current levels are the lowest in decades. However, the method of enforcement has drawn criticism. Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026, a higher share than any other state.

Local leaders and residents express mixed feelings about the administration's border strategy. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, said most people accept removing criminals but object to deporting productive, law-abiding citizens. He described the upcoming race as tough. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and member of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times. He plans to vote Democrat in November because he feels voters were not told how aggressive the crackdown would become.

Guerrero noted that an acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to between four and six people. This illustrates the local distinction between securing the border and the specific actions being taken. Republican consultant Mike Madrid pointed out that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents. This makes their final decision harder to predict.

In the 15th congressional district, which was redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans an expected 18-point majority, polls now show a Democratic lead of five to six points. Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused his campaign on the economy rather than national party labels. He told voters, 'This isn't New York, this isn't LA.' Cost of living is a top concern for many in the area.

At a local avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin stated, 'He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job.' Republican campaigners acknowledge they are facing challenges. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga said the midterms are purely a game of turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that national political headwinds are real despite crediting Trump for breaking through barriers.

If the polling is accurate, a modest swing back to Democrats could reshape races beyond Texas. In the state itself, this shift could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat in more than 30 years.