Trump's Approval Plunges to 37% Ahead of Critical Midterm Vote
Polls show the president's support has fallen below a threshold that historically predicts harsh electoral results for the ruling party.
By Elijah Fitzgerald ·
President Trump's average approval rating has dropped to 37%, a figure that has historically signaled severe midterm losses for the party in power. This decline from a 52% average earlier in 2025 places the Republican majority in the House at risk on Tuesday.
The president visited Iowa and Kansas during the final weekend of the campaign to support Senate candidates. In 2016, Trump won 31 Iowa counties that previously voted for Barack Obama. Kansas had not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. The trips were briefly canceled but then reinstated before the weekend. He also held remote rallies in 19 other states.
Political analysts predict the GOP will lose its slim House majority. The Senate remains too close to call, with Vice President Vance holding the potential tie-breaking vote. Trump has framed the election as a personal referendum, telling supporters to pretend he is on the ballot. He has positioned himself as the primary driver of national events, a strategy that resonates with his base but not the broader electorate.
Critics have focused on unmet promises regarding Ukraine peace and inflation. Voters report that gas prices and everyday costs remain high despite the president's claims of economic relief. The anti-autocrat slogan No Kings has become a prominent theme at rallies against the administration.
Democrats face internal challenges if they gain power. Their likely House majority would be modest by historical standards. A narrow Senate win would benefit independent members who frequently break from party leadership. Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, published 11 questions for Democrats in October. He asked if the party would prioritize working-class interests over race and environmental policy.
The election also tests public confidence in the voting system. Trump has repeatedly questioned election results since his 2016 nomination. He gathered supporters in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, to protest the 2020 results. Although he accepted the 2024 outcome, he continues to label polling and news reporting as fake. He has asked reporters who they work for and called them fake news.
Nonpartisan experts note that election administration has improved since the Help America Vote Act of 2002. This law replaced punch-card ballots with touch-screen technology and paper trails. However, tension is expected on election night and in the days following as results are tallied. The process will test whether voters trust the mechanisms that determine their government.
