Knesset math: Palestinian blocs poised to hold balance of power

Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition and the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc are both projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset. This arithmetic leaves the balance of power in the hands of Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are expected to secure between 12 and 15 seats. These seats will be split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al. The outcome of next week's elections depends entirely on which bloc secures the support of this minority group.

Ahmad Tibi, leader of Ta'al and a Knesset member for more than two decades, stated that the party is determined to bring the current government down. He identified high turnout among the Arab community as a primary tool for achieving this goal. Tibi noted that the choice is between a far-right government led by Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, or the opposition bloc. He described the decision as a selection between bad and worse.

The political landscape is complicated by the opposition's reluctance to partner with Arab politicians. Most Jewish Israeli opposition parties have ruled out a coalition with the Palestinian bloc. Netanyahu and his allies have amplified this stance with campaign slogans such as "Bibi or Tibi" and "It's the right or Palestine." Historically, such alliances have been rare. Israel has had only two Palestinian ministers in its history: Raleb Majadele, who served for two years, and Issawi Frej, who served for just over a year.

Precedent suggests that political positions may shift once results are finalized. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu also initiated coalition talks with Abbas at that time. A prospective voter, a manager at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to adjust its stance based on the final numbers. He compared the political calculation to simple mathematics, stating that one plus one equals two, and is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote.

The Joint List and Ra'am face internal challenges in forming a stable partnership. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution. Most strongly oppose a Palestinian state and support the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said that fear is the biggest motivation for voters. He argued that the community understands the danger of the current government returning to power.

Recent events have intensified these concerns. The death and destruction in Gaza, militant violence, and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank have deepened worries about another four years of far-right leadership. Rising racism and discrimination within Israel have also played a role. The election takes place two days before Kafr Qassim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken an unknown curfew.

Distrust of the electoral system has historically depressed turnout. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the October 7 Hamas-led attacks. The ruling was widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. In contrast, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language, including calls for ethnic cleansing, was not upheld.

Some Palestinians abstain on principle. Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat wrote that she refuses to legitimize a system that treats her rights as favors. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation, as Palestinians can see the difference between a rightwing and a far-right government. Iraqi acknowledged that there is no clarity about what comes afterwards, a feeling of powerlessness shared by many voters.