Trump's Shadow Looms Over Midterm Ballot as Candidates Keep Distance
With approval ratings low and fraud claims persisting, the president's active campaigning shapes the dynamic of a pivotal congressional election.
By Elijah Fitzgerald ·
Election Day has arrived for a midterm contest that serves as a direct referendum on the second term of President Donald Trump. The outcome will determine which party controls Congress for the remainder of the president's time in office. All 435 seats in the U.S. House and 35 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for grabs, alongside 36 governorships. The Associated Press describes the atmosphere as one where voters are grappling with high prices and frustration over an unpopular war with Iran. This context has made the president's political standing a central focus for both parties and independent observers alike.
Recent polling data highlights the challenges facing the administration. Only 35 percent of U.S. Adults approve of Trump's job performance. Approval for his handling of the economy stands even lower at 25 percent. Approximately seven in ten Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, with most blaming the president for the current state of high prices. These numbers provide a backdrop for a campaign that has been intensely focused on the economy and the cost of living for the average household.
Despite the polling numbers, the president has maintained a high profile throughout the campaign. He held dozens of rallies in the weeks leading up to the vote, with his final event taking place on Sunday in Salina, Kansas. At that gathering, he urged supporters to treat his name as if it were on the ballot, saying, "I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot." His schedule included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas, indicating a strategy to energize the base in key districts. However, many Republican candidates have kept their distance from the president during this final stretch, a tactical move aimed at differentiating themselves from his polarizing presence.
The president has continued to voice concerns about the integrity of the vote, making claims about voting fraud that have not been widely supported by evidence. He has asserted that noncitizens vote in large numbers, a claim that has fueled legal battles. His administration has sued in Alaska and California, and Democrats have expressed fear of interference and intimidation as the Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials. A federal judge temporarily barred the administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting on Monday, while another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. These legal maneuvers have added a layer of uncertainty to the election administration process.
Financial resources have played a significant role in shaping the campaign landscape. The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and contributions from Elon Musk. At the candidate level, however, Democrats outraised their opponents. An analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts that Trump won in 2024. This included more than $850 million spent in areas where he won by 10 points or more, a strategy focused on defending the president's strongest electoral ground.
Voter sentiment on the ground reflects a mix of loyalty and frustration. Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said that he has been following Trump the whole time and believes he is doing an awesome job. In contrast, James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, noted that he is paying more for taxes, healthcare, and everything else. These individual accounts mirror the broader national divide. Republicans were bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate, while Democrats were cautiously optimistic. One or two seats could tip the balance in either chamber, making every district critical.
The stakes for the House are precise. Republicans currently hold 218 seats and Democrats hold 214, with one independent and vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of three districts to secure a majority, while Republicans can afford to lose no more than two seats. Ballotpedia counts 46 battleground districts, with 25 held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, while Republicans can lose only two. Eleven senators are not running again, and the winners will begin six-year terms on January 3, 2027. The control of these chambers will dictate the legislative agenda and the potential for investigations or impeachment proceedings.
If Democrats win even one chamber, the political dynamics will shift significantly. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would be the first Black speaker, has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight. A strong Democratic night would also boost potential 2028 candidates such as Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while potentially complicating the path of Vice President JD Vance. Republicans attempted to beat the historical midterm pattern of the president's party losing seats through redistricting, but new maps in states like Florida and Texas may not vote exactly as drawn. The six states using new congressional maps include California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas, with Ohio also utilizing a new map.
