Kalshi Valued at $40B After Midterm Bets

Kalshi, the New York-based prediction market, has reached a valuation of $40 billion. The company recently closed a funding round that raised $1 billion. This milestone arrives as Americans have placed more than $1.3 billion in bets on the outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections via the platform. Trading volume for midterms-related events has approached $1.5 billion, marking a major growth phase for the site.

Tarek Mansour, the company’s cofounder and CEO, told Columbia Journalism Review that the platform serves as a source of information and a marketplace. He argued that the system rewards accuracy. Mansour stated, 'Our view is to just give as much information as possible and let people make their own independent judgments.' He noted that users trade against one another rather than a house, a structure that helps the company navigate state gambling regulations.

The platform’s odds predicted a clear victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race. El-Sayed won the seat, and Kalshi’s broader forecast of a Democratic sweep proved accurate. News outlets, including CNN, CNBC, and Fox, use Kalshi’s data as a forecasting metric. This partnership allows the company to reach audiences where people consume election news, although Mansour declined to disclose the financial terms of these deals.

Critics point to the risk of gambling addiction and insider trading, noting that almost any question can be traded. Mansour addressed the comparison to traditional gambling by referencing the history of grain futures. He argued that society accepts these financial instruments as standard, distinct from sportsbooks that set lines against the customer. 'It’s not a crystal ball; it’s a probabilistic model,' Mansour said. He added that an 80 percent chance of an event occurring means it will happen four out of five times.

Mansour believes the market depolarizes public debate by forcing participants to be precise. He suggested that if a person is certain about a political outcome, they should be willing to stake money on it. 'You should tell them to put twenty bucks on it,' he said. 'All of a sudden, they will get more careful.' He noted that the company’s politics category has grown faster than its football markets this season.

The company’s headquarters is a converted printing plant in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District. Mansour donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to candidates on both sides of the political spectrum. He acknowledged that the company is new and that some people assume novelty equates to risk. 'There’s some sort of presumption that because it’s new, it’s bad,' he said. 'I just think people don’t understand it.'

Several states are currently in court fighting for the right to regulate prediction markets. These legal battles could shape how the industry operates in the future. Kalshi remains the largest prediction market by volume and valuation. The betting window for the 2026 midterms remains open until elected officials are sworn into office.