Votel Says Iran Strikes Could Degrade Capability, But Not Settle Conflict

Retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 through 2019, said a possible new round of American and Israeli strikes on Iran would not end the conflict. Votel, who now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, discussed the objectives of a potential post-election bombing campaign with NPR's Leila Fadel.

Votel said many candidate targets have been hit before and Iran has demonstrated an ability to rebuild them. He said strikes can buy time, impose costs on Tehran and reduce some of Iran's capabilities, but added that prior strikes have not shifted Tehran's approach to the war. He noted Iran's government has grown more hard-line and more willing to carry out counterattacks and threats.

In his view, the first requirement is a clearly stated objective. Votel said Washington needs to define the end state and how it would declare the war finished, and he identified the enrichment issue and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the principal concerns. He said military, economic, diplomatic and information pressure should all be directed at that goal, and described military force as one tool among several.

On the financial front, Votel said the blockade and sanctions are increasing pressure. He cited reporting that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil. He said that approach takes time, but added there is movement in that direction. He also acknowledged that U.S. aims have been difficult to read, and said much of the effort centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz so oil and commerce can move more freely, which he said would help lower gas and diesel prices at home. He identified Iran's nuclear program as the second concern.

Votel said Iran also uses proxies to create instability around the region, including a link to the Houthis on the far side of the Arabian Peninsula, but he described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries. To bring Iran to the negotiating table, he said, requires a clear statement of objectives, coordinated use of military, economic and diplomatic tools, and patience to see that approach through.

Asked about the U.S. military's readiness to sustain strikes while defending bases and partners in the Gulf, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial and that the ability to strike is not in question. He identified missile defense as the potential constraint, and said offensive capability is where it needs to be while defense may face a bit of a constraint.