70% of Voters Under 30 Backed Democrats in 2026 Midterms
The AP Voter Poll shows a sharp leftward shift among young, Hispanic, and low-income voters, reversing many of Trump's 2024 gains.
By Jonathan Hoffmann ·
About seven in ten voters under 30 supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race in the 2026 midterms, according to The AP Voter Poll. That figure marks a dramatic departure from the 2024 presidential election, when the youngest voters were roughly split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The survey, which polled more than 100,000 registered voters in all 50 states, indicates that young voters snapped back toward the Democratic Party after showing relatively high support for Trump two years prior.
The shift was not limited to age. Hispanic voters, who moved toward Trump in 2024, also swung left this year. Nationally, about six in ten Hispanic voters backed the Democratic candidate in House races, compared to roughly four in ten who voted for Trump in 2024. Black men showed a similar reversal. Only about one in ten Black men supported the Republican House candidate, down from the roughly one-quarter who backed Trump in the last presidential election. About nine in ten Black voters overall supported the Democratic House candidate, an increase from the roughly eight in ten who voted for Harris in 2024.
Moderate voters also played a role in several key Senate races. Approximately two-thirds of moderates supported the Democratic House candidate, up from the approximately six in ten who backed Harris in 2024. A large majority of these voters, about eight in ten, said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about seven in ten moderate voters, a substantial rise from the roughly half that supported Harris in 2024. Similar gains were seen in Iowa and North Carolina, where Democrats flipped Republican-held Senate seats.
Economic concerns drove the shift among lower-income voters. More than half of voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race. These voters were about evenly split between Trump and Harris in 2024. About six in ten of these low-income voters said the cost of living was a key factor in their choice, compared to about half of voters earning $50,000 or more. The group is a sizable portion of the electorate, with about three in ten U.S. voters reporting a family income under $50,000.
Young voters expressed distinct dissatisfaction with the current state of the country. About half of voters under 30 said they were angry about how things were going, compared to about one-third of voters ages 65 and older. Approximately six in ten young voters said they voted for the U.S. House candidate to express opposition to Trump. This sentiment was more common among younger voters than among those ages 30 to 44 or older.
The demographic shifts had tangible impacts on specific races. Democrats gained ground with young voters in Senate races in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico won over Republican Ken Paxton, with roughly six in ten Hispanic voters in the state supporting Talarico. In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody won reelection in a narrow Senate race, but less than half of Hispanic voters supported her, a group Trump had definitively won in 2024. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected as governor, winning about nine in ten Black men and nine in ten Black women.
The AP Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press and other networks from October 19 to November 3 in Alaska and October 22 to November 3 in other states. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample. The data reflects the preferences of registered voters in all 50 states during the 2026 midterm election cycle.
